A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Become 'Another Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."