Daily Murders in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Statistics

The mean count of per-day killings per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative statistics. But, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder figures might not indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Marked Drop in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in last November versus almost 87 when Sheinbaum assumed the presidency in September. This information was provided by the head of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen during these months is very important,” the President stated, adding that the previous month the lowest number of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the administration's highly militarised operations to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “We have a plan, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

However, public safety experts warned that using homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for gauging the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was also problematic because it may mask days when there were notably high numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes high peaks of violence less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a notable killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

A short time later, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.